Green Oak — belief seeding review

The belief-former ran over all 107 work-order observations with the new generalization + property-footprint rules. It now mints behavioral beliefs from repeated dispatch (no PM statement needed) and records the properties each vendor serves. Below: the dispatch brain it built, an audit of the property "go-to" gate against the real clusters, and the warts to clean up.

★ Look at these first

★ A1 Service is tagged "appliance + HVAC." But you also have George HVAC and First Aid for HVAC. Should A1's HVAC be trimmed to appliance-only, or is A1 genuinely your HVAC vendor too?
★ Rightway "general handyman + minor leaks" is your heaviest vendor — 22 jobs across 11 properties, so it drives the most dispatch. Confirm that catch-all scope is right (esp. that leaks should route to it vs. a plumber).
★ The 2-job "go-to" beliefs. Rightway@1827 is a real leak (only 2 jobs), Primate@2419 and Roberto@9th are each a vendor's only property. Keep them, or drop to footprint-only?
Decision: dedupe the 2 duplicate beliefs + make the property "go-to" layer deterministic (kills the 1827 leak, recovers A1's two missed 3-job clusters). Go-ahead?

30beliefs

92reinforcements

7noops

0errors

107observations

Vendor capability beliefs— what each vendor does + where (footprint)

Vendor	Belief (claim)	conf	evid	props	Property footprint
★ Rightway	general handyman repairs and minor leaks handyman	0.64	22	11	742 N Cherokee, 2135 Ivar, 1827 S Barrington, 4219 Abner, 9th St Bungalow, 1616 Ashland, 2419 Cochran, 33 Sea Colony, 4418 Vantage, 8921 Wonderland, Horizon Duplex
★ A1 Service	appliance repairs and HVAC issues appliance	0.55	13	8	829 Bunker Hill, 9th St Bungalow, 9033 Dicks, 8921 Wonderland, 1616 Ashland, 4239 Lindblade, 4418 Vantage, 5178 Almont
Garcia's	general handyman, minor plumbing leaks, dishwasher handyman	0.50	11	10	2135 Ivar, 1820 S Barrington, 2123 Linnington, 2312 West, 505 N Belmont, 115 Ocean Front, 9206 S Hoover, 8921 Wonderland, 9th St Bungalow
Reckon & Reckon	drain clogs and drain backups plumbing	0.43	7	6	2135 Ivar, 829 Bunker Hill, 9033 Dicks, 8921 Wonderland, 4418 Vantage, 9th St Bungalow
All City Plumbing	plumbing issues plumbing	0.41	7	7	1827 S Barrington, 2123 Linnington, 3473 Sabina, 4219 Abner, 4418 Vantage, 829 Bunker Hill, 9033 Dicks
Raptor Appliance	appliance repairs, esp. washers & dishwashers appliance	0.41	6	5	4418 Vantage, 5179 Huntington, 8342 Kirkwood, 8921 Wonderland, 9th St Bungalow
George HVAC	HVAC issues hvac	0.32	3	3	1616 Ashland, 9th St Bungalow, Horizon Ave Duplex
José Gonzalez	general handyman + minor plumbing/leak handyman	0.31	3	3	1616 Ashland, 3473 Sabina, 4219 Abner
Zakhar Plumbing	plumbing repairs and water heaters plumbing	0.32	3	2	1820 S Barrington, 8342 Kirkwood
Get Pro Locksmith	locksmith and lock issues locksmith	0.29	2	2	4219 Abner, 9th St Bungalow
First Aid Appliance & HVAC	HVAC issues hvac	0.28	2	2	829 Bunker Hill, 9th St Bungalow

+ 9 single-job vendors got low-confidence (0.25) capability beliefs from one observation each — ASAP Locksmith, Bondy Service, Enterprise Plumbing, Kaesler Plumbing, King Neptune Pools, Mike Green Fire, South County Exterminators, Twin Home Experts, United Glass. Useful as trade tags; the low confidence flags them as soft.

Property "go-to" beliefs— gate audit vs. the ≥3-job clusters in the data

Belief	jobs (evid)	verdict
Jimmy's Pool is the go-to pool service at 742 N Cherokee	5	correct
Jose Rivera is the go-to landscaping at 742 N Cherokee	5	correct
Rightway is the go-to handyman at 742 N Cherokee	5	correct
Rightway is the go-to handyman at 2135 Ivar Ave	4	correct
Rightway is the go-to handyman at 9th St Bungalow	3	correct
★ Rightway is the go-to handyman at 1827 S Barrington	2	leak — below gate
Primate Pest at 2419 S Cochran · Roberto Carvalho at 9th St Bungalow	2 each	soft — vendor's only property
A1 Service at 829 Bunker Hill (3) · A1 Service at 9th St Bungalow (3)	3 each	missed — should exist

Warts to clean up

2 duplicate beliefs

Jimmy's Pool has two near-identical beliefs at 742 ("handles pool cleaning at 742" + "go-to pool service at 742"). Raptor has "appliance, esp washers/dishwashers" (6 evid) AND a bare "appliance repairs" (1 evid) — the second is a redundant subset. The former should've been an attach, not a second create.

The property gate is LLM-judged, so it's fuzzy (±)

It nailed the big 742 cluster and Rightway's 2135 / 9th, but let one 2-job belief through (1827) and missed both of A1's 3-job clusters. The threshold lives in the prompt, and the model only sees a 5-observation window — so it can't count reliably. The vendor-wide footprints (top table) are exact; only the "go-to" layer is fuzzy.

Recommendation

Ship the vendor-capability beliefs as-is — 11 multi-job + 9 soft singletons, all with exact property footprints. This is the dispatch brain and it's solid.
Dedupe the 2 pairs (Jimmy's, Raptor) — 30 sec of SQL.
Make the "go-to" layer deterministic. We already compute the exact ≥3 vendor×property clusters in SQL — generate those property-scoped beliefs from the count instead of asking the LLM to eyeball it. Precise, no leaks, no misses. The LLM keeps doing what it's good at (trade/capability); the counting moves to code.